Ex. Bike-Share CEO Wants To Bring Big Tech’s Data Ambition To Public Procurement

What is a Mobility Impact Market?

Lars: Erdem, in a nutshell, what is a mobility impact market?
Erdem: The mobility impact market is what I call impact procurement as a service. It’s essentially a service layer for cities to spend their money more effectively. Instead of only relying on infrastructure subsidies or public transport support, we use micro-incentives to influence behavior. These incentives can target trips and availability for bike sharing, cargo bikes, scooters, mopeds, carsharing, or carpooling. The goal is to reduce private vehicle use, which creates congestion, noise, and health costs, and instead nudge citizens toward modes that make cities more livable.

Impact Procurement as a Service Explained

Lars: You’ve compared your model to how tech companies run ad campaigns. Can you explain that?
Erdem: In advertising, companies used to rely on agencies for their upfront assumptions in terms which ad campaigns would work. Today, with Facebook or Google, they run many small campaigns, track real-world behavior, and scale what works. Our model applies the same principle to public procurement. Instead of assuming outcomes with tenders, we experiment with different mobility incentives, observe the effects, and adjust quarterly. This makes public spending more efficient and evidence-based.

What Cities Want from Incentive Programs

Lars: Which types of incentives are cities most interested in?
Erdem: Many cities want to cut private car use in city centers. They’re interested in bike share and scooters for last-mile connections to trains. They’re also looking at e-bike or carpooling options to reduce congestion from suburban commutes. Carsharing and cargo bikes are key to lowering car ownership in dense areas. Another trend is shifting urban cargo deliveries from vans to micromobility vehicles. Cities are also preparing for autonomous vehicles, both to manage their risks and to use them for first- and last-mile solutions in suburban and rural areas.

Why the Impact Market is Different from Traditional Tenders

Lars: How does your solution compare to traditional public tenders?
Erdem: A tender process can take two to three years from planning to delivery. By then, technology or demand may have changed, and outcomes often fall short of expectations. Tenders also lock cities into one provider for 5–10 years, which is risky in a fast-changing sector. The impact market avoids these problems. It brings in multiple operators, adjusts incentives every three months, and ensures competition remains active. It also allows multiple departments: mobility, health and real estate to pool their budgets and fund incentives that serve shared goals.

How Mobility Incentives Work for Users and Operators

Lars: What does this look like for users and companies?
Erdem: The market itself interfaces with operators, not directly with end users. Companies qualify if they meet certain criteria, such as being financially stable or compliant with EU rules. They receive payouts for trips that match defined conditions, say, a cargo bike ride or a shared car trip. For users, this translates into more affordable trips, sometimes even free rides, because operators compete where incentives are offered. In some cases, individuals with their own e-bikes or cargo bikes can also be incentivized, creating direct financial benefits for citizens.

Using Data to Measure Real Behavior Change

Lars: What role does data play in your framework?
Erdem: Data is central. We combine trip data from operators with GSM data from residents to understand not just how many trips were made, but what those trips replaced. Did an incentivized bike trip replace a car trip or just a walk? That distinction determines the social gain. Too often, companies claim mode shift without evidence. Our job is to measure the real behavior change and its value to society, so that incentives reflect true impact.

Addressing the Mode Shift Debate

Lars: Research often criticizes scooters or bikes for replacing walking trips rather than cars. How do you view this debate?
Erdem: Public authorities need to clearly define which externalities they care about and assign a value to them. In essence, they don’t mind which modes of transport that are used, so long the transport contributes to the public outcomes we seek: reduce congestion, emissions, or increase physical activity. That means if scooters replace mainly walking and cycling trips, and few car trips, well, that’s a net negative in terms of social outcomes. If and where they manage to replace personal car trips, that is likely a new positive. Companies are good at meeting user needs and innovating. Authorities should focus on outcomes, like fewer cars or more active travel, and let the market compete to deliver those results. 

The Challenges of Public Procurement Innovation

Lars: What obstacles do you face when pitching this to cities?
Erdem: Civil servants often like the idea, but higher up in the bureaucracy, risk aversion kicks in. Public institutions are wired against experimenting with new models because of fear of failure. Even pilots usually require strong mayor-level backing. That’s why we’re building alliances with thought leaders in transport economics and policy to support credibility. It’s a slow process, but once a few pilots succeed, I believe this will establish a whole new category of procurement.

Looking Ahead to 2026 Pilots

Lars: What does the future look like for the Mobility Impact Market?
Erdem: We’re aiming to launch the first pilots in 2026, with cities committing around half a million euros each. These pilots shouldn’t just be experiments, they need to evolve into long-term frameworks for incentives. I believe that if we demonstrate success, this model can fundamentally reshape how cities manage mobility and public spending.

Lars: Anything else you’d like to add?
Erdem: This is about creating a new category, impact procurement as a service. Just as we helped pioneer shared micromobility, I see this as the next frontier. The timing is right for cities that want to accelerate their green transition, reduce congestion, and spend smarter. We’re looking for forward-thinking cities to join us on this journey. 

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